PNNL

Abstract

While we cannot predict the future, we can ascertain trends and examine them through the use of alternative futures methodologies and tools. From a logistics perspective, we know that many different futures are possible, all of which are obviously dependent on decisions we make in the present. As professional logisticians we are obligated to provide the field - our Soldiers - with our best professional opinion of what will result in success on the battlefield. Our view of the future should take history and contemporary conflict into account, but it must also consider that continuity with the past cannot be taken for granted. If we are too focused on past and current experience, then our vision of the future will be limited indeed. On the one hand, the future must be explained in language that does not defy common sense. On the other hand, the pace of change is such that we must conduct qualitative and quantitative trend analyses, forecasting, and explorative scenario development in ways that allow for significant breaks - or "shocks" - that may "change the game". We will need capabilities and solutions that are constantly evolving - and improving - to match the operational tempo of a radically changing threat environment. For those who provide quartermaster services, this article will briefly examine what this means from the perspective of creating what might be termed a preferred future.