PNNL

Abstract

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) into the passenger fleet would reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, studies have shown that emissions from the electric sector could increase in response. Here, we utilize a multi-sector human-earth system model to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of very-large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO2 emissions through 2050. Even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies, additional EVs would not increase national CO2 emissions for the US in 2050. Greater net CO2 reductions are realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of US electricity production, highlighting mutual synergies in renewable, decarbonized electricity and electric vehicles. Net air pollutant emission impacts in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050, implying large benefits of EV adoption in the short-term. New England states that have adopted policies that limit regional electric sector CO2 emissions are shown to have greater CO2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis.