PNNL

Abstract

The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand-side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply-side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multi-model framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate change impacts on demand and supply a?ect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the ?eet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investments costs by approximately $31 billion (USD2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.