PNNL

Abstract

A Proliferation Trade Risk metric has been calculated for each country represented in a publicly-available trade dataset. This metric, comprising both direct and indirect proliferation trade risk components, represents the risk that each country’s proliferation-relevant exports will go to a designated set of proliferation threat countries. This metric can serve to prioritize nonproliferation export control capacity building engagement. Further, within such engagement, the decomposition of the proliferation trade risk metric can identify specific industrial sectors and trade relationships of greatest importance for outreach and enforcement measures. Finally, these supply-side perspectives can be complemented by threat-based profiles identifying the most important suppliers to each threat country.