PNNL

Abstract

The challenges of modeling future socio-ecological states numerically suggest that qualitative understanding of system behavior should be further developed. The objective here is to identify and develop general principles of socio-ecological system behavior, supported by empirical evidence drawn from long records of regional environmental change. A few are deduced from historical case studies. But for others, we can take principles (often aphorisms) from theoretical ecology and complexity science and test their validity in the real world by comparison with historical records. Past records not only provide longer timescales than are conventionally available for observations, but also provide a larger array of socio-ecological systems than currently exist. As a basic starting point, here are some principles drawn from the literature and discussions at IHOPE meetings that could be tested (or tested further) with archeological/ palaeoecological/historical records. The bullet points note variants on each theme, further explanations and implications.