PNNL

Abstract

Without equity considerations, previous studies indicate that most future carbon dioxide removal (CDR) efforts will be concentrated in Asia. However, there is limited understanding of how individual Asian countries will respond to varying and uncertain scales of future CDR in relation to their energy-land-water system. We address this gap by quantitatively modeling CDR and decarbonization targets separately under climate change ambitions in Asia. We find that a high CDR pathway leads to residual emissions of about 8 GtCO2/yr by 2050, compared to less than 1 GtCO2/yr under moderate-to-low CDR reliance. Moreover, this high CDR pathway delays the achievement of net zero CO2 emissions for several Asian countries, and leads to a reduction of 65-80% in cropland in key agricultural regions. Here, we show that while CDR is necessary, it is worth exploring strategies that reduce excessive reliance on CDR while capitalizing on its advantages when it is most viable.