Hailstones generate substantial economic losses across the United States and the globe. Their strong association with short-lived, intense convective storms poses a great challenge to predict their future changes. This work shows that the two major types of hailstorm systems observed over the Central United States have contrasting responses to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). A 60% increase in large hail occurrence (> 2.5 cm in diameter) is produced in response to ACC by hailstorms associated with cold frontal systems, whereas hailstorms associated with strong Great Plains low-level jets (GPLLJs) have low sensitivity to ACC. The larger increase in convective intensity and updraft volume and a smaller increase in warm cloud depth in the frontal systems than in the GPLLJs explains this difference. The extreme precipitation from both types of systems is equally sensitive to ACC. These results have important implications for predicting and managing risks for future hail and flash floods.
Published: October 6, 2022
Citation
Fan J., Y. Zhang, J. Wang, J. Jeong, X. Chen, S. Zhang, and Y. Lin, et al. 2022.Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems.Earth's Future 10, no. 8:Art. No. e2022EF002768.PNNL-SA-159712.doi:10.1029/2022EF002768