PNNL

Abstract

Urban vegetation, the core component of green infrastructure and critical for sustainable cities, is profoundly affected by the process of urbanization. Urbanization not only leads to substantial vegetation loss (direct impact) but also fosters urban vegetation growth (indirect impact). However, the extent to which these direct and indirect impacts affect vegetation dynamics across cities worldwide and how urban greening will change in the future remain unclear. Using satellite-based greenness and impervious surface datasets, we show that positive indirect impacts mitigated 56.85% of the negative direct impacts across 4,718 cities worldwide from 2000 to 2019. Notably, the offsetting coefficient is much greater in Global North cities (79.13%) than in Global South cities (38.01%) partly due to their socioeconomic differences. This disparity in urban greening dynamics will continue in the future. Approximately 60% of Global North cities and 30% of Global South cities will become greener by 2040. Our results reveal the divergent trade-offs between vegetation loss and enhanced vegetation growth in cities of different socioeconomic levels and stages of urbanization. Such insights are crucial for a comprehensive understanding of urban greening dynamics and for devising strategies to attain sustainable development goals.