PNNL

Abstract

Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States with a suite of climate change projections. The total production of three major grain crops (corn, soybean, winter wheat) and two forage crops (alfalfa and clover hay) is calculated based on the Core Production Area (CPA) of each crop. Changes in production occur with each of the crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric CO2 increases production. The results varied depending on the General Circulation Model (GCM) used to simulate climate. Regional production followed trends similar to national production, but the magnitude of change was variable and substantially larger in some regions. An analysis of Currently Possible Production Areas (CPPA) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to experience change with climate change are those on the edge of the area where the crop is currently grown. While national production of dryland agriculture does not change drastically, it is apparent that the regional impacts may be significant.