PNNL

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies, and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results show a large range in future land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in cropland areas. We demonstrate a significant, systematic difference in land cover areas arising from the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences between scenarios. This leads us to conclude that a diverse set of models and approaches is required in order to account for model uncertainty when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate.