PNNL

Abstract

U.S. residential and commercial buildings currently use about 39 quadrillion Btu (quads) of energy per year and account for 0.6 gigatonnes (GT) of carbon emitted to the atmosphere (38% of U.S. total emissions of 1.6 GT and approximately 9% of the world fossil-fuel related anthropogenic emissions of 6.7 GT). The U.S. government has long funded buildings-related energy efficiency research and implementation programs to reduce energy consumption in buildings and to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions that result in global warming. These programs also have value in adapting the U.S. residential and commercial building stock to a potentially warmer world. Analyses conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that the world’s climate could warm relative to1990 by 0.4°C to 1.2°C by the year 2030 and by 1.4°C to 5.8°C by the end of the 21st century. This paper shows that the effect of the regional projected warming on energy consumption in U.S. residential and commercial buildings is a net decrease ranging from about 5% in 2020 to as much as 20% in 2080, but with an increase of as much as 25% in temperature-sensitive electricity demand. Calculations of the potential value of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) buildings-related energy efficiency programs on future U.S. energy consumption show site energy savings in 2020 of more than 2 quads, which would more than offset the growth in temperature-sensitive energy consumption due to climate and growth in building stock combined, and would be worth between $28 and $33 billion.