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Atmospheric Science & Global Change

Staff information


Leon Clarke

Joint Global Chg Research Inst
Joint Appointment
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
PO Box 999
Richland, WA 99352


Dr. Leon Clarke leads the Integrated Human Earth Systems Science program at the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), a collaboration between the University of Maryland and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). He is an expert in the cross-disciplinary analysis of issues relating to energy, technology, policy, and climate change. Dr. Clarke’s current activities focus on the evolution of national and international energy and agricultural systems, energy technology deployment and technological advance, scenario analysis, international climate policy, and integrated analysis of climate impacts. Dr. Clarke has served in a range of national and international leadership roles, including participation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Climate Assessment, and the National Academy Study on America’s Climate Choices. He has also coordinated several multi-institution studies exploring energy, technology, policy, and climate change. Dr. Clarke is an author on more than one hundred peer-reviewed journal articles, book chapters, and synthesis products.

Research Interests

  • Integrated, multi-sector research
  • Technology development deployment strategy
  • Scenario analysis
  • National and international climate and energy policy
  • Climate impacts

Education and Credentials

  • Ph.D., Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University
  • M.S., Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University
  • M.S., Mechanical Engineering, University of California at Berkeley
  • B.S., Mechanical Engineering, University of California at Berkeley

PNNL Publications


  • McJeon H.C., B. Mignone, P. O'Rourke, R. Horowitz, H. Kheshgi, L.E. Clarke, and P. Kyle, et al. 2021. "Fossil energy deployment through midcentury consistent with 2°C climate stabilization." Energy and Climate Change 2. PNNL-ACT-SA-10418. doi:10.1016/j.egycc.2021.100034


  • Binsted M.T., G.C. Iyer, Y. Cui, Z. Khan, K.R. Dorheim, and L.E. Clarke. 2020. "Evaluating long-term model-based scenarios of the energy system." Energy Strategy Reviews 32. PNNL-SA-150857. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2020.100551
  • Calvin K.V., B. Mignone, H. Kheshgi, A.C. Snyder, P.L. Patel, M.A. Wise, and L.E. Clarke, et al. 2020. "Global market and economic welfare implications of changes in agricultural yields due to climate change." Climate Change Economics 11, no. 1:Article No. 2050005. PNNL-ACT-SA-10398. doi:10.1142/S2010007820500050
  • Graham N.T., M.I. Hejazi, M. Chen, E. Davies, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and S. Turner, et al. 2020. "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1:Article No. 014007. PNNL-SA-151297. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b
  • Hultman N., L.E. Clarke, C. Frisch, K. Kennedy, H.C. McJeon, T. Cyrs, and P. Hansel, et al. 2020. "Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States." Nature Communications 11, no. 1:Article No. 5255. PNNL-ACT-SA-10500. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18903-w
  • Khan Z., T.B. Wild, C.R. Vernon, A. Miller, M.I. Hejazi, L.E. Clarke, and F.R. Miralles-Wilhelm, et al. 2020. "Metis A tool to harmonize and analyze multi-sectoral data and linkages at variable spatial scales." Journal of Open Research Software 8, no. 1:Article No. 292. PNNL-SA-146642. doi:10.5334/JORS.292
  • Khan Z., T.B. Wild, M. Silva Carrazzone, R. Gaudioso, M. Mascari, F. Bianchi, and F. Weinstein, et al. 2020. "Integrated energy-water-land nexus planning to guide national policy: an example from Uruguay." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 9. PNNL-SA-150376. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab9389
  • Snyder A.C., K.V. Calvin, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, P. Kyle, K. Narayan, and A. Di Vittorio, et al. 2020. "The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM." PLOS ONE 15, no. 8:e0237918. PNNL-SA-134943. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0237918
  • Tong D., J. Cheng, Y. Liu, S. Yu, L. Yan, C. Hong, and Y. Qin, et al. 2020. "Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015-2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, no. 9:5729-5757. PNNL-SA-151276. doi:10.5194/acp-20-5729-2020


  • Yu S., J.D. Horing, Q. Liu, R.T. Dahowski, C.L. Davidson, J.A. Edmonds, and B. Liu, et al. 2019. "CCUS in China’s Mitigation Strategy: Insights from Integrated Assessment Modeling." International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 84. PNNL-SA-128974. doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.03.004


  • Feijoo F., G.C. Iyer, C. Avraam, S.A. Siddiqui, L.E. Clarke, S. Sankaranarayanan, and M.T. Binsted, et al. 2018. "The future of natural gas infrastructure development in the United states." Applied Energy 228. PNNL-SA-132268. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.06.037
  • Iyer G.C., K.V. Calvin, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, N. Hultman, C.A. Hartin, and H.C. McJeon, et al. 2018. "Implications of sustainable development considerations for comparability across nationally determined contributions." Nature Climate Change 8. PNNL-SA-121202. doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0039-z
  • Lamontagne J.R., P. Reed, R.P. Link, K.V. Calvin, L.E. Clarke, and J.A. Edmonds. 2018. "Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios." Earth's Future 6, no. 3:488-504. PNNL-ACT-SA-10362. doi:10.1002/2017EF000701
  • Srinivasan S., N. Kholod, V. Chaturvedi, P. Ghosh, R. Mathur, L.E. Clarke, and M. Evans, et al. 2018. "Water for Electricity in India: A Multi-Model Study of Future Challenges and Linkages to Climate Change Mitigation." Applied Energy 210. PNNL-SA-122615. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.04.079
  • Zhou S., Y. Wang, Y. Zhou, L.E. Clarke, and J.A. Edmonds. 2018. "Roles of wind and solar energy in China's power sector: Implications of intermittency constraints." Applied Energy 213. PNNL-ACT-SA-10328. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.01.025


  • Dahowski R.T., C.L. Davidson, S. Yu, J.D. Horing, N. Wei, L.E. Clarke, and S.R. Bender. 2017. "The impact of CCS readiness on the evolution of China’s electric power sector." Energy Procedia 114. PNNL-SA-121580. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1817
  • Davidson C.L., R.T. Dahowski, H.C. McJeon, L.E. Clarke, G.C. Iyer, and M. Muratori. 2017. "The value of CCS under current policy scenarios: NDCs and beyond." Energy Procedia 114. PNNL-SA-121411. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1885
  • Iyer G.C., C.M. Ledna, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, H.C. McJeon, P. Kyle, and J. Williams. 2017. "Measuring Progress from Nationally Determined Contributions to Mid-Century Strategies." Nature Climate Change 7. PNNL-ACT-SA-10269. doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0005-9
  • Luo W., M.T. Steptoe, Z. Chang, R.P. Link, L.E. Clarke, and R. Maciejewski. 2017. "Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios." IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications 37, no. 5:40-49. PNNL-SA-130120. doi:10.1109/MCG.2017.3621222
  • Muratori M., C.M. Ledna, H.C. McJeon, P. Kyle, P.L. Patel, S.H. Kim, and M.A. Wise, et al. 2017. "Cost of Power or Power of Cost: a U.S. Modeling Perspective." Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 77. PNNL-ACT-SA-10131. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.04.055
  • Muratori M., H. Kheshgi, B.K. Mignone, H.C. McJeon, and L.E. Clarke. 2017. "The future role of CCS in electricity and liquid fuel supply." Energy Procedia 114. PNNL-ACT-SA-10186. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1893
  • Muratori M., H. Kheshgi, B.K. Mignone, L.E. Clarke, H.C. McJeon, and J.A. Edmonds. 2017. "Carbon Capture and Storage across Fuels and Sectors in Energy System Transformation Pathways." International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 57. PNNL-ACT-SA-10144. doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.11.026
  • Pan X., W. Chen, L.E. Clarke, L. Wang, and L. Guannan. 2017. "China's energy system transformation towards the 2 °C goal: Implications of different effort-sharing principles." Energy Policy 103. PNNL-ACT-SA-10244. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.020


  • Aldy J., W. Pizer, M. Tavoni, L. Reis, K. Akimoto, G.J. Blanford, and C. Carraro, et al. 2016. "Economic Tools to Promote Transparency and Comparability in the Paris Agreement." Nature Climate Change 6. PNNL-ACT-SA-10174. doi:10.1038/nclimate3106
  • Calvin K.V., M.A. Wise, P. Luckow, P. Kyle, L.E. Clarke, and J.A. Edmonds. 2016. "Implications of uncertain future fossil energy resources on bioenergy use and terrestrial carbon emissions." Climatic Change 136, no. 1:57-68. PNWD-SA-10003. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0923-0
  • Clarke L.E., J. McFarland, C. Octaviano, B. van Ruijven, R.H. Beach, K. Daenzer, and S. Herreras Martinez, et al. 2016. "Long-Term Abatement Potential and Current Policy Trajectories in Latin American Countries." Energy Economics 56. PNNL-SA-116184. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.01.011
  • Hallegatte S., J. Rogelj, M. Allen, L.E. Clarke, O. Edenhofer, C.B. Field, and P. Friedlingstein, et al. 2016. "Mapping the climate change challenge." Nature Climate Change 6, no. 7:663668. PNNL-ACT-SA-10142. doi:10.1038/nclimate3057
  • Iyer G.C., L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, and N. Hultman. 2016. "Do national-level policies to promote low-carbon technology deployment pay off for the investor countries?." Energy Policy 98. PNNL-ACT-SA-10178. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.08.017
  • van der Zwaan B., K.V. Calvin, and L.E. Clarke. 2016. "Climate Mitigation in Latin America: Implications for Energy and Land Use: Preface to the Special Section on the findings of the CLIMACAP-LAMP Project." Energy Economics 56. PNNL-SA-116534. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.05.005
  • van der Zwaan B., T. Kober, S. Calderon, L.E. Clarke, K. Daenzer, A. Kitous, and M. Labriet, et al. 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America." Energy Economics 56. PNNL-SA-117609. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.11.019
  • vanVuuren D., H. van Soest, K. Riahi, L.E. Clarke, V. Krey, E. Kriegler, and J. Rogelj, et al. 2016. "Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways." Environmental Research Letters 11, no. 7:Article No. 075002. PNNL-ACT-SA-10173. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075002
  • Wang L., P.L. Patel, S. Yu, B. Liu, J.D. Mcleod, L.E. Clarke, and W. Chen. 2016. "Win-Win strategies to promote air pollutant control policies and non-fossil energy target regulation in China." Applied Energy 163. PNNL-SA-112613. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.10.189


  • Arent D., J. Logan, J. Macknick, W. Boyd, K. Medlock, F. O'Sullivan, and J.A. Edmonds, et al. 2015. "A review of water and greenhouse gas impacts of unconventional natural gas development in the United States." MRS Energy and Sustainability 2. PNNL-SA-111479. doi:10.1557/mre.2015.5
  • Calvin K.V., S. Rose, M.A. Wise, H.C. McJeon, L.E. Clarke, and J.A. Edmonds. 2015. "Global Climate, Energy, and Economic Implications of International Energy Offsets Programs." Climatic Change 133, no. 4:583-596. PNWD-SA-10499. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1482-3
  • Clarke L.E., K. Jiang, K. Akimoto, M. Babiker, G.J. Blanford, K. Fisher-Vanden, and J. Hourcade, et al. 2015. "Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by O Edenhofer, et al. 413-510. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press. PNNL-SA-102686. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415416.012
  • Fawcett A., G.C. Iyer, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, N. Hultman, H.C. McJeon, and J. Rogelj, et al. 2015. "Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?." Science 350, no. 6265:1168-1169. PNNL-ACT-SA-10111. doi:10.1126/science.aad5761
  • Iyer G.C., J.A. Edmonds, A.A. Fawcett, N. Hultman, J. Alsalam, G.R. Asrar, and K.V. Calvin, et al. 2015. "The contribution of Paris to limit global warming to 2 °C." Environmental Research Letters 10, no. 12:Article No. 125002. PNNL-SA-111720. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125002
  • Iyer G.C., L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, B.P. Flannery, N. Hultman, H.C. McJeon, and D. Victor. 2015. "Improved Representation of Investment Decisions in Assessments of CO2 Mitigation." Nature Climate Change 5, no. 5:436-440. PNNL-ACT-SA-10042. doi:10.1038/nclimate2553
  • Iyer G.C., L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, N. Hultman, and H.C. McJeon. 2015. "Long-term payoffs of near-term low-carbon deployment policies." Energy Policy 86. PNNL-ACT-SA-10084. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.004
  • Iyer G.C., N. Hultman, J. Eom, H.C. McJeon, P.L. Patel, and L.E. Clarke. 2015. "Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, no. Part A:103-118. PNNL-SA-93434. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.025
  • Liu B., M. Evans, L.E. Clarke, S.T. Waldhoff, and S. Yu. 2015. Decarbonizing India’s Power Sector: Preliminary Synthesis of Project Results from the U.S.-India Model Intercomparison. PNNL-24736. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Decarbonizing India’s Power Sector: Preliminary Synthesis of Project Results from the U.S.-India Model Intercomparison
  • Smith S.J., L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, J. Kejun, E. Kriegler, T. Masui, and K. Riahi, et al. 2015. "Long History of IAM Comparisons." Nature Climate Change 5, no. 5:391. PNNL-SA-108156. doi:10.1038/nclimate2576
  • Zhou Y., M.I. Hejazi, S.J. Smith, J.A. Edmonds, H. Li, L.E. Clarke, and K.V. Calvin, et al. 2015. "A Comprehensive View of Global Potential for Hydro-generated Electricity." Energy and Environmental Science 8, no. 9:2622-2633. PNNL-SA-109269. doi:10.1039/c5ee00888c


  • Calvin K.V., M.A. Wise, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, A.D. Jones, and A.M. Thomson. 2014. "Near-term limits to mitigation: challenges arising from contrary mitigation effects from indirect land-use change and sulfur emissions." Energy Economics 42. PNNL-SA-92596. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.026
  • Chaturvedi V., J. Eom, L.E. Clarke, and P.R. Shukla. 2014. "Long term building energy demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework." Energy Policy. PNWD-SA-9694. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.11.021
  • Clarke L.E., A. Fawcett, J. Weyant, J. McFarland, V. Chaturvedi, and Y. Zhou. 2014. "Technology and U.S. Emissions Reductions Goals: Results of the EMF 24 Modeling Exercise." The Energy Journal 35, no. Special Issue:Article No. 2. PNNL-SA-95218. doi:10.5547/01956574.35.SI1.2
  • Krey V., G. Luderer, L.E. Clarke, and E. Kriegler. 2014. "Getting from here to there energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios." Climatic Change 123, no. 3-4:369-382. PNNL-SA-95431. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0947-5
  • Kriegler E., J. Weyant, G.J. Blanford, V. Krey, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, and A.A. Fawcett, et al. 2014. "The Role of Technology for Achieving Climate Policy Objectives: Overview of the EMF 27 Study on Technology Strategies and Climate Policy Scenarios." Climatic Change 123, no. 3-4:353-367. PNNL-SA-93355. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0953-7
  • McJeon H.C., J.A. Edmonds, N. Bauer, L.E. Clarke, B. Fisher, B.P. Flannery, and J. Hilaire, et al. 2014. "Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas." Nature 514, no. 7523:482-485. PNNL-ACT-SA-10016. doi:10.1038/nature13837
  • Yu S., J. Eom, M. Evans, and L.E. Clarke. 2014. "A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China." Energy Policy 67. PNNL-SA-99677. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.009
  • Yu S., J. Eom, Y. Zhou, M. Evans, and L.E. Clarke. 2014. "Scenarios of Building Energy Demand for China with a Detailed Regional Representation." Energy 67. PNNL-SA-99762. doi:10.1016/


  • Zhou Y., J. Eom, and L.E. Clarke. 2013. "The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China." Climatic Change 119, no. 3-4:979-992. PNNL-SA-85863. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x


  • Calvin K.V., L.E. Clarke, V. Krey, G.J. Blanford, K. Jiang, M. Kainuma, and E. Kriegler, et al. 2012. "The Role of Asia in Mitigating Climate Change: Results from the Asia Modeling Exercise." Energy Economics 34, no. Supplement 3:S251S260. PNNL-SA-88519. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.09.003
  • Chaturvedi V., S. Waldhoff, L.E. Clarke, and S. Fujimori. 2012. "What are the Starting Points? Evaluating Base-Year Assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise." Energy Economics 34, no. Supplement 3:S261-S271. PNNL-SA-88324. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.05.004
  • Clarke L.E., V. Krey, J. Weyant, and V. Chaturvedi. 2012. "Regional energy system variations in global models: Results from the Asian Modeling Exercise." Energy Economics 34, no. Supplement 3:S293-S305. PNWD-SA-9869. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.018
  • Zhou Y., P. Luckow, S.J. Smith, and L.E. Clarke. 2012. "Evaluation of Global Onshore Wind Energy Potential and Generation Costs." Environmental Science & Technology 46, no. 14:7857-7864. PNNL-SA-84749. doi:10.1021/es204706m


  • Clarke L.E., and J. Weyant. 2009. "Introduction to the EMF 22 special issue on climate change control scenarios." Energy Economics 31, no. 2:63. PNWD-SA-8777.
  • Clarke L.E., J.A. Edmonds, V. Krey, R.G. Richels, S. Rose, and M. Tavoni. 2009. "International Climate Policy Architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios." Energy Economics 31, no. 2:S64-S81. PNWD-SA-8776.
  • Wigley T.M., L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, H.D. Jacoby, H.D. Jacoby, S. Paltsev, and H.M. Pitcher, et al. 2009. "Uncertainties in climate stabilization." Journal of Climate 97, no. 1-2:85-121. PNNL-SA-55498.
  • Wise M.A., K.V. Calvin, A.M. Thomson, L.E. Clarke, B. Bond-Lamberty, R.D. Sands, and S.J. Smith, et al. 2009. "Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy." Science 324, no. 5931:1183-1186. PNNL-SA-63505.


  • Baker E.D., L.E. Clarke, and E. Shittu. 2008. "Technical Change and the Marginal Cost of Abatement." Energy Economics 30, no. 6:2799-2816. PNNL-SA-62948. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2008.01.004
  • Clarke L.E., J. Weyant, and J.A. Edmonds. 2008. "On the sources of technological change: What do the models assume." Energy Economics 30, no. 2:409424. PNNL-SA-62947.
  • Edmonds J.A., L.E. Clarke, J.P. Lurz, and M.A. Wise. 2008. "Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations with Incomplete International Cooperation." Climate Policy 8, no. 4:355-376. PNNL-SA-57554.
  • Edmonds J.A., L.E. Clarke, M.A. Wise, H.M. Pitcher, and S.J. Smith. 2008. "Implications for the USA of stabilization of radiative forcing at 3.4 W/m2." Climate Policy 8. PNNL-SA-57662.
  • Thomson A.M., R. Izaurralde, S.J. Smith, and L.E. Clarke. 2008. "Integrated Estimates of Global Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration." Global Environmental Change. Part A, Human and Policy Dimensions 18, no. 1:192-203. PNNL-SA-53033.


  • Edmonds J.A., and L.E. Clarke. 2007. "Forum." Issues in Science and Technology 23, no. 2:16-17. PNNL-SA-52455.
  • Edmonds J.A., L.E. Clarke, M.A. Wise, and J.P. Lurz. 2007. International CO2 Stabilization Scenarios with Less-Than-Perfect “Where” and “When” Flexibility. PNNL-16932. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. International CO2 Stabilization Scenarios with Less-Than-Perfect “Where” and “When” Flexibility
  • Edmonds J.A., M.A. Wise, J.J. Dooley, S.H. Kim, S.J. Smith, P.J. Runci, and L.E. Clarke, et al. 2007. Global Energy Technology Strategy: Addressing Climate Change Phase 2 Findings from an international Public-Private Sponsored Research Program. College Park, Maryland:Battetlle Memorial Institute. PNNL-SA-51712.
  • Richels R.G., T. Rutherford, G.J. Blanford, and L. Clarke. 2007. "Managing the transition to climate stabilization." Climate Policy 7, no. 5:409428. PNWD-SA-8377.
  • Rong F., L.E. Clarke, and S.J. Smith. 2007. Climate Change and the Long-Term Evolution of the U.S. Buildings Sector. PNNL-16869. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Climate Change and the Long-Term Evolution of the U.S. Buildings Sector


  • Baker E.D., L.E. Clarke, and J. Weyant. 2006. "Optimal Technology R&D in the Face of Climate Uncertainty." Climatic Change 78, no. 1:157-179. PNNL-SA-45911.
  • Clarke L.E., J. Weyant, and A. Birky. 2006. "On the Sources of Technological Advance: Assessing the Evidence." Energy Economics 28, no. 5-6:579-595. PNNL-SA-45832.
  • Runci P.J., L.E. Clarke, and J.J. Dooley. 2006. "Energy Research (Letter)." Issues in Science and Technology XXII, no. 3:10-11. PNNL-SA-47701.

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