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Staff information

Leon Clarke

Leon Clarke

Joint Global Change Research Institute


Dr. Leon Clarke is a Senior Research Economist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and he is a staff member of the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), a collaboration between PNNL and the University of Maryland at College Park. Dr. Clarke's current research focuses on the role of technology in addressing climate change, scenario analysis, and integrated assessment model development. Dr. Clarke coordinated the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's emissions scenario development process, and he was a contributing author on the Working Group III contribution to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. Prior to joining PNNL, Dr. Clarke worked for RCG/Hagler, Bailly, Inc. (1990-1992), Pacific Gas & Electric Company (1992-1996), and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (2002-2003). He was also a research assistant at Stanford's Energy Modeling Forum (1999-2002), where he worked on issues related to technological change and integrated assessment modeling. Dr. Clarke received B.S. and M.S. degrees in Mechanical Engineering from U.C. Berkeley and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Engineering Economic Systems and Operations Research at Stanford University.

Research Interests

  • Economics of technological change
  • Environmental economics
  • Research and development strategy

Education and Credentials

  • Ph.D., Engineering-Economic Systems and Operations Research, Stanford University
  • M.S., Engineering-Economic Systems and Operations Research, Stanford University
  • M.S., Mechanical Engineering, University of California at Berkeley
  • B.S., Mechanical Engineering, University of California at Berkeley

PNNL Publications


  • Chaturvedi V, MI Hejazi, JA Edmonds, LE Clarke, GP Kyle, E Davies, and MA Wise. 2015. "Climate Mitigation Policy Implications for Global Irrigation Water Demand." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 20(3):389-407.  doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9497-4
  • Iyer GC, N Hultman, J Eom, HC McJeon, PL Patel, and LE Clarke. 2015. "Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90(Part A):103-118.  doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.025
  • Kraucunas IP, LE Clarke, JA Dirks, JE Hathaway, MI Hejazi, KA Hibbard, M Huang, C Jin, MCW Kintner-Meyer, K Kleese van Dam, LYR Leung, H Li, RH Moss, MJ Peterson, JS Rice, MJ Scott, AM Thomson, N Voisin, and TO West. 2015. "Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)." Climatic Change 129(3-4):573-588.  doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1064-9


  • Calvin KV, MA Wise, GP Kyle, PL Patel, LE Clarke, and JA Edmonds. 2014. "Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets." Climatic Change 123(3-4):691-704.  doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0897-y
  • McJeon HC, JA Edmonds, N Bauer, LE Clarke, B Fisher, BP Flannery, J Hilaire, V Krey, G Marangoni, R Mi, K Riahi, HH Rogner, and M Tavoni. 2014. "Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas." Nature 514(7523):482-485.  doi:10.1038/nature13837
  • Yu S, J Eom, M Evans, and LE Clarke. 2014. "A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China." Energy Policy 67:626-639.  doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.009
  • Yu S, J Eom, Y Zhou, M Evans, and LE Clarke. 2014. "Scenarios of Building Energy Demand for China with a Detailed Regional Representation." Energy 67:284-297.  doi:10.1016/
  • Chaturvedi V, J Eom, LE Clarke, and PR Shukla. 2014. "Long term building energy demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework." Energy Policy (64):226-242.  doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.11.021
  • Chaturvedi V, LE Clarke, JA Edmonds, KV Calvin, and GP Kyle. 2014. "Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales." Energy Economics 46:267-278.  doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.09.008
  • Hejazi MI, JA Edmonds, LE Clarke, GP Kyle, E Davies, V Chaturvedi, MA Wise, PL Patel, J Eom, KV Calvin, RH Moss, and SH Kim. 2014. "LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 81:205-226.  doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.05.006
  • Hejazi MI, JA Edmonds, LE Clarke, GP Kyle, E Davies, V Chaturvedi, MA Wise, PL Patel, J Eom, and KV Calvin. 2014. "Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18(8):2859-2883.  doi:10.5194/hess-18-2859-2014
  • Hejazi MI, JA Edmonds, LE Clarke, GP Kyle, E Davies, V Chaturvedi, MA Wise, PL Patel, J Eom, and KV Calvin. 2014. "Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18(8):2859-2883.  doi:10.5194/hess-18-2859-2014
  • Krey V, G Luderer, LE Clarke, and E Kriegler. 2014. "Getting from here to there - energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios." Climatic Change 123(3-4):369-382.  doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0947-5
  • Kriegler E, J Weyant, GJ Blanford, V Krey, LE Clarke, JA Edmonds, AA Fawcett, G Luderer, K Riahi, RG Richels, S Rose, M Tavoni, and D Van Vuuren. 2014. "The Role of Technology for Achieving Climate Policy Objectives: Overview of the EMF 27 Study on Technology Strategies and Climate Policy Scenarios." Climatic Change 123(3-4):353-367.  doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0953-7
  • Scott MJ, DS Daly, Y Zhou, JS Rice, PL Patel, HC McJeon, GP Kyle, SH Kim, J Eom, and LE Clarke. 2014. "Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technolgical, and socioeconomic futures in a regional intergrated-assessment model. ." Energy Economics 43(2014):22-33.  doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.01.012
  • Wise MA, HC McJeon, KV Calvin, LE Clarke, and GP Kyle. 2014. "Assessing the interactions among U.S. climate policy, biomass energy, and agricultural trade." The Energy Journal 35(Special Issue):, doi:10.5547/01956574.35.si1.9
  • Zhou Y, LE Clarke, J Eom, GP Kyle, PL Patel, SH Kim, JA Dirks, EA Jensen, Y Liu, JS Rice, LC Schmidt, and TE Seiple. 2014. "Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework." Applied Energy 113:1077-1088.  doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.08.034


  • Calvin KV, MA Wise, LE Clarke, JA Edmonds, GP Kyle, PW Luckow, and AM Thomson. 2013. "Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: Initial experiments using GCAM." Climatic Change 117(3):545-560.  doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0650-y
  • Chaturvedi V, MI Hejazi, JA Edmonds, LE Clarke, GP Kyle, E Davies, MA Wise, and KV Calvin. 2013. Climate policy implications for agricultural water demandPNNL-22356, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA. 
  • Chaturvedi V, SH Kim, SJ Smith, LE Clarke, Y Zhou, GP Kyle, and PL Patel. 2013. "Model Evaluation and Hindcasting: An Experiment with an Integrated Assessment Model." Energy 61:479-490.  doi:10.1016/
  • Edmonds JA, PW Luckow, KV Calvin, MA Wise, JJ Dooley, GP Kyle, SH Kim, PL Patel, and LE Clarke. 2013. "Can Radiative Forcing Be Limited to 2.6 Wm-2 Without Negative Emissions From Bioenergy AND CO2 Capture and Storage?" Climatic Change 118(1):29-43.  doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0678-z
  • Eom J, RH Moss, JA Edmonds, KV Calvin, LE Clarke, JJ Dooley, SH Kim, R Kopp, GP Kyle, PW Luckow, PL Patel, AM Thomson, MA Wise, and Y Zhou. 2013. "Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing." In Engineering Response to Climate Change, 2nd Ed., ed. RG Watts, pp. 81-138  CRC Press Inc, Boca Raton, FL. 
  • Kyle GP, E Davies, JJ Dooley, SJ Smith, LE Clarke, JA Edmonds, and MI Hejazi. 2013. "Corrigendum to "Influence of climate change mitigation technology on global demands of water for electricity generation"." International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 17:549-552.  doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2013.03.017
  • Kyle GP, E Davies, JJ Dooley, SJ Smith, LE Clarke, JA Edmonds, and MI Hejazi. 2013. "Influence of Climate Change Mitigation Technology on Global Demands of Water for Electricity Generation." International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 13:112-123.  doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.12.006
  • Le Page YLB, G Hurtt, AM Thomson, B Bond-Lamberty, PL Patel, MA Wise, KV Calvin, GP Kyle, LE Clarke, JA Edmonds, and AC Janetos. 2013. "Sensitivity of climate mitigation strategies to natural disturbances." Environmental Research Letters 8(1):Article No. 015018.  doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015018
  • Zhou S, GP Kyle, S Yu, LE Clarke, J Eom, PW Luckow, V Chaturvedi, X Zhang, and JA Edmonds. 2013. "Energy use and CO2 emissions of China's industrial sector from a global perspective." Energy Policy 58:284-294.  doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.014
  • Zhou Y, J Eom, and LE Clarke. 2013. "The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China." Climatic Change 119(3-4):979-992.  doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x


  • Calvin KV, LE Clarke, V Krey, GJ Blanford, K Jiang, M Kainuma, E Kriegler, G Luderer, and PR Shukla. 2012. "The Role of Asia in Mitigating Climate Change: Results from the Asia Modeling Exercise." Energy Economics 34(Supplement 3):S251-S260.  doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.09.003
  • Chaturvedi V, S Waldhoff, LE Clarke, and S Fujimori. 2012. "What are the Starting Points? Evaluating Base-Year Assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise." Energy Economics 34(Supplement 3):S261-S271.  doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.05.004
  • Clarke LE, V Krey, J Weyant, and V Chaturvedi. 2012. "Regional energy system variations in global models: Results from the Asian Modeling Exercise." Energy Economics 34(Supplement 3):S293-S305.  doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.018
  • Edmonds JA, KV Calvin, LE Clarke, GP Kyle, and MA Wise. 2012. "Energy and technology lessons since Rio." Energy Economics 34(Supplement 1):S7-S14.  doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.037
  • Edmonds JA, KV Calvin, LE Clarke, AC Janetos, SH Kim, MA Wise, and HC McJeon. 2012. "Integrated Assessment Modeling." In Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology, ed. RA Meyers, pp. 5398-5428.  Springer , New York, NY. 
  • Eom J, KV Calvin, LE Clarke, JA Edmonds, SH Kim, R Kopp, GP Kyle, P Luckow, RH Moss, PL Patel, and MA Wise. 2012. "Exploring the Future Role of Asia Utilizing A Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-Ecosystem Pathways." Energy Economics 34(Supplement 3):S325-S338.  doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.03.012
  • Eom J, LE Clarke, SH Kim, GP Kyle, and PL Patel. 2012. China's Building Energy Use: A Long-Term Perspective based on a Detailed AssessmentPNNL-21073, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA. 
  • Eom J, LE Clarke, SH Kim, GP Kyle, and PL Patel. 2012. "China's Building Energy Demand: Long-Term Implications from a Detailed Assessment." Energy 46(1):405-419.  doi:10.1016/
  • Zhou Y, P Luckow, SJ Smith, and LE Clarke. 2012. "Evaluation of Global Onshore Wind Energy Potential and Generation Costs." Environmental Science & Technology 46(14):7857-7864.  doi:10.1021/es204706m


  • McJeon HC, LE Clarke, GP Kyle, MA Wise, A Hackbarth, B Bryant, and R Lempert. 2011. "Technology Interactions among Low Carbon Energy Technologies: What Can We Learn from a Large Number of Scenarios?" Energy Economics 33(4):619-631.  doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2010.10.007
  • Kyle GP, LE Clarke, SJ Smith, SH Kim, M Nathan, and MA Wise. 2011. "The Value of Advanced End-Use Energy Technologies in Meeting U.S. Climate Policy Goals." The Energy Journal 32(Special Issue):Article No. 5. 
  • Pugh G, LE Clarke, R Marlay, GP Kyle, MA Wise, HC McJeon, and G Chan. 2011. "Energy R&D portfolio analysis based on climate change mitigation." Energy Economics 33(4):634-643.  doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2010.11.007
  • Thomson AM, KV Calvin, SJ Smith, GP Kyle, AC Volke, PL Patel, S Delgado Arias, B Bond-Lamberty, MA Wise, LE Clarke, and JA Edmonds. 2011. "RCP4.5: A Pathway for Stabilization of Radiative Forcing by 2100." Climatic Change 109(1-2):77-94.  doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4


  • Kyle GP, LE Clarke, F Rong, and SJ Smith. 2010. "Climate Policy and the Long-Term Evolution of the U.S. Buildings Sector." The Energy Journal Vol. 31(2):145-172. 


  • Calvin KV, JA Edmonds, B Bond-Lamberty, LE Clarke, SH Kim, GP Kyle, SJ Smith, AM Thomson, and MA Wise. 2009. "2.6: Limiting Climate Change to 450 ppm CO2 Equivalent in the 21st Century." Energy Economics 31(2):S107-S120. 
  • Calvin KV, JA Edmonds, LE Clarke, B Bond-Lamberty, SH Kim, MA Wise, AM Thomson, and GP Kyle. 2009. Land-use LeakagePNNL-18585, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA. 
  • Calvin KV, PL Patel, AA Fawcett, LE Clarke, K Fisher-Vanden, JA Edmonds, SH Kim, R Sands, and MA Wise. 2009. "The Distribution and Magnitude of Emissions Mitigation Costs in Climate Stabilization Under Less Than Perfect International Cooperation: SGM Results." Energy Economics 31(2):S187-S197 . 
  • Clarke LE, and J Weyant. 2009. "Introduction to the EMF 22 special issue on climate change control scenarios." Energy Economics 31(2):63. 
  • Clarke LE, JA Edmonds, V Krey, RG Richels, S Rose, and M Tavoni. 2009. "International Climate Policy Architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios ." Energy Economics 31(2):S64-S81. 
  • Kyle GP, LE Clarke, G Pugh, MA Wise, KV Calvin, JA Edmonds, and SH Kim. 2009. "The Value of Advanced Technology in Meeting 2050 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Targets in the United States." Energy Economics 31(2):S254-S267. 
  • Wigley TM, LE Clarke, JA Edmonds, HD Jacoby, S Paltsev, HM Pitcher, JM Reilly, RG Richels, MC Sarofim, and SJ Smith. 2009. "Uncertainties in climate stabilization." Journal of Climate 97(1-2):85-121 . 
  • Wise MA, KV Calvin, AM Thomson, LE Clarke, B Bond-Lamberty, RD Sands, SJ Smith, AC Janetos, and JA Edmonds. 2009. "Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy." Science 324(5931):1183-1186 . 


  • Clarke LE, J Weyant, and JA Edmonds. 2008. "On the sources of technological change: What do the models assume." Energy Economics 30(2):409-424. 
  • Thomson AM, RC Izaurralde, SJ Smith, and LE Clarke. 2008. "Integrated Estimates of Global Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration." Global Environmental Change. Part A, Human and Policy Dimensions 18(1):192-203. 
  • Baker ED, LE Clarke, and E Shittu. 2008. "Technical Change and the Marginal Cost of Abatement." Energy Economics 30(6):2799-2816.  doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2008.01.004
  • Edmonds JA, LE Clarke, JP Lurz, and MA Wise. 2008. "Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations with Incomplete International Cooperation." Climate Policy 8(4):355-376. 
  • Edmonds JA, LE Clarke, MA Wise, HM Pitcher, and SJ Smith. 2008. "Implications for the USA of stabilization of radiative forcing at 3.4 W/m2 ." Climate Policy 8:S76 - S92. 
  • Kyle GP, LE Clarke, and SJ Smith. 2008. "The Value of Advanced Technologies in the U.S. Buildings Sector in Climate Change Mitigation." In Scaling Up: Building Tomorrow's Solutions : Proceedings from the 2008 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, p. 267.  ACEEE, Washington DC. 



  • Clarke LE, J Weyant, and A Birky. 2006. "On the Sources of Technological Advance: Assessing the Evidence." Energy Economics 28(5-6):579-595. 
  • Baker ED, LE Clarke, and J Weyant. 2006. "Optimal Technology R&D in the Face of Climate Uncertainty." Climatic Change 78(1):157-179 . 
  • Clarke LE, MA Wise, M Placet, RC Izaurralde, JP Lurz, SH Kim, SJ Smith, and AM Thomson. 2006. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology ScenariosPNNL-16078, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA. 
  • Runci PJ, LE Clarke, and JJ Dooley. 2006. "Energy Research (Letter)." Issues in Science and Technology XXII(3):10-11. 

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