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Richard H. Moss

Integrat Analys & Dec Sci Team
Social Scientist


Richard H. Moss is a Senior Scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Joint Global Change Research Institute and Adjunct Professor in the Department of Geographical Sciences at the University of Maryland, College Park. Moss’s research on global environmental change focuses on (1) scenarios (including the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), (2) uncertainty characterization in integrated models and scientific assessments, and (3) methods for evaluating potential consequences of interacting societal and environmental changes. Moss has held several public service positions including Director of the US Global Change Research Program/Climate Change Science Program Office (spanning the Clinton and G.W. Bush Administrations) and technical support director for one of the working groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Moss chairs the Federal Advisory Committee for the Sustained US National Climate Assessment and the National Academy of Science's Board on Environmental Change and Society. He is a fellow of the American Society for the Advancement of Science, a National Associate of the National Research Council, and a Distinguished Associate of the US Department of Energy. He received his Ph.D. from Princeton University in public and international affairs.

Richard H. Moss: Joint Global Change Research Institute Publications.

Research Interests

  • Systems dynamics of integrated human-environment systems
  • Uncertainty characterization
  • Vulnerability indicators and assessments
  • Climate and socioeconomic scenarios (e.g.,Representative Concentration Pathways -- RCPs)

Education and Credentials

  • Ph.D., Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University (1987)
  • M.P.A., Princeton University (1983)
  • B.A., Carleton College (1977)

Affiliations and Professional Service

  • Chair, Federal Advisory Committee for the Sustained US National Climate Assessment (2016-present)
  • Chair, National Academy of Sciences, Board on Environmental Change and Society (2009-present)
  • Member, NOAA Science Advisory Board (2016- )
  • Member, executive committee of National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee (2011-2014)
  • Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Task Group on Scenarios (2002-2011)
  • Climatic Change Editorial Board (1999-present)
  • Annual Review of Energy and the Environment Editorial Board (1994-1999)

Awards and Recognitions

  • National Associate, National Research Council (2016)
  • Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science (2007)
  • Distinguished Associate, U.S. Department of Energy (2004)
  • Aldo Leopold Fellow (2001)
  • International Affairs Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (NY) (1991-1993)

PNNL Publications


  • Calvin K.V., B. Bond-Lamberty, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, J. Eom, C.A. Hartin, and S.H. Kim, et al. 2017. "The SSP4: A World of Deepening Inequality." Global Environmental Change 42. PNNL-SA-115202. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010
  • Weaver C.P., R.H. Moss, K. Ebi, P. Gleick, P. Stern, C. Tebaldi, and R. Wilson, et al. 2017. "Reframing Climate Change Assessments Around Risk: Recommendations for the U.S. National Climate Assessment." Environmental Research Letters 12, no. 8:Article No. 080201. PNNL-SA-127975. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7494


  • Asrar G.R., R.H. Moss, and K. Jacobs. 2016. "Challenges and Opportunities in Earth-Human Systems Research." Eos 97. PNNL-SA-118445. doi:10.1029/2016EO050919
  • Buizer J.L., K. Dow, M.E. Black, K. Jacobs, A. Waple, R.H. Moss, and S. Moser, et al. 2016. "Building a sustained climate assessment process." Climatic Change 135, no. 1:23-37. PNNL-SA-116463. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1501-4
  • Kunkel K.E., R.H. Moss, and A. Parris. 2016. "Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment." Climatic Change 135, no. 1:55-68. PNNL-SA-116569. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1494-z
  • Meehl G.A., and R.H. Moss. 2016. "Aspen Global Change Institute: 25 Years of Interdisciplinary Global Change Science." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 97, no. 11:20027-2037. PNNL-SA-114923. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00204.1
  • Moser S., J. Melillo, K. Jacobs, R.H. Moss, and J.L. Buizer. 2016. "Aspirations and common tensions: larger lessons from the third US national climate assessment." Climatic Change 135, no. 1:187-201. PNNL-SA-116464. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1530-z
  • Moss R.H. 2016. "Assessing Decision Support Systems and Levels of Confidence to Narrow the Climate Information “Usability Gap”." Climatic Change 135, no. 1:143-155. PNWD-SA-10535. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1549-1
  • ONeill B.C., C. Tebaldi, D. Van Vuuren, V. Eyring, P. Fridelingstein, G. Hurtt, and R. Knutti, et al. 2016. "The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6." Geoscientific Model Development 9, no. 9:3461-3482. PNNL-SA-118670. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016


  • Kraucunas I.P., L.E. Clarke, J.A. Dirks, J.E. Hathaway, M.I. Hejazi, K.A. Hibbard, and M. Huang, et al. 2015. "Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)." Climatic Change 129, no. 3-4:573-588. PNNL-SA-93553. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1064-9
  • Scott M.J., D.S. Daly, J.E. Hathaway, C.S. Lansing, Y. Liu, H.C. McJeon, and R.H. Moss, et al. 2015. "Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings with Uncertainty in an Integrated Assessment Model." Energy 90, no. Part 2:1682-1694. PNNL-SA-102017. doi:10.1016/


  • Engle N.L., A. de Bremond, E.L. Malone, and R.H. Moss. 2014. "Towards a resilience indicator framework for making climate-change adaptation decisions." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 19, no. 8:1295-1312. PNWD-SA-10122. doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9475-x
  • Hejazi M.I., J.A. Edmonds, L.E. Clarke, G.P. Kyle, E. Davies, V. Chaturvedi, and M.A. Wise, et al. 2014. "LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 81. PNNL-SA-89288. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.05.006
  • Meehl J., R.H. Moss, K.E. Taylor, V. Eyring, R.J. Stouffer, S. Bony, and B. Stevens. 2014. "Climate Model Intercomparisons: Preparing for the Next Phase." Eos 95, no. 9:77-78. PNNL-SA-101404. doi:10.1002/2014EO090001
  • Scott M.J., D.S. Daly, J.E. Hathaway, C.S. Lansing, Y. Liu, H.C. McJeon, and R.H. Moss, et al. 2014. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data. PNNL-23918. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
  • Weaver C.P., S. Mooney, D. Allen, N. Beller-Simms, T. Fish, A. Grambsch, and W. Hohenstein, et al. 2014. "From global change science to action with social sciences." Nature Climate Change 4, no. 8:656-659. PNNL-SA-106965. doi:10.1038/nclimate2319


  • Eom J., R.H. Moss, J.A. Edmonds, K.V. Calvin, L.E. Clarke, J.J. Dooley, and S.H. Kim, et al. 2013. "Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing." In Engineering Response to Climate Change, 2nd Ed., edited by RG Watts. 81-138. Boca Raton, Florida:CRC Press Inc. PNNL-SA-89563.
  • Moss R.H., G. Meehl, M. Lemos, J.B. Smith, J.R. Arnold, J.C. Arnott, and D. Behar, et al. 2013. "Hell and High Water: Practice-Relevant Adaptation Science." Science 342, no. 6159:696-698. PNNL-SA-97765. doi:10.1126/science.1239569
  • West T.O., M.E. Brown, R.M. Duran, S. Ogle, and R.H. Moss. 2013. "Definition, Capabilities, and Components of a Terrestrial Carbon Monitoring System." Carbon Management 4, no. 4:413-422. PNNL-SA-93397. doi:10.4155/CMT.13.36


  • Eom J., K.V. Calvin, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, R. Kopp, and G.P. Kyle, et al. 2012. "Exploring the Future Role of Asia Utilizing A Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-Ecosystem Pathways." Energy Economics 34, no. Supplement 3:S325-S338. PNNL-SA-83863. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.03.012
  • Kriegler E., B. O'Neill, S. Hallegatte, T. Kram, R. Lempert, R.H. Moss, and T. Wilbanks. 2012. "The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways." Global Environmental Change. Part A, Human and Policy Dimensions 22, no. 4:807-822. PNNL-SA-91376. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005
  • Moss R.H., and M.A. Lane. 2012. "Decisionmaking, Transitions, and Resilient Futures." Issues in Science and Technology 28, no. 4:31-34. PNNL-SA-91373.
  • Rice J.S., R.H. Moss, P.J. Runci, K.L. Anderson, and E.L. Malone. 2012. "Incorporating Stakeholder Decision Support Needs into an Integrated Regional Earth System Model." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 17, no. 7:805-819. PNNL-SA-84366. doi:10.1007/s11027-011-9345-3
  • Rosa E., T. Dietz, R.H. Moss, S. Atran, and S. Moser. 2012. "Managing the Risks of Climate Change and Terrorism." Solutions: For a Sustainable and Desirable Future 3, no. 2:59-65. PNNL-SA-91374.
  • Rosa E., T. Dietz, R.H. Moss, S. Atran, and S. Moser. 2012. "Managing the Risks of Climate Change and Terrorism." Solutions: For a Sustainable and Desirable Future 3, no. 2:59-65. PNNL-SA-91529.
  • Van Vuuren D., K. Riahi, R.H. Moss, J.A. Edmonds, A.M. Thomson, N. Nakicenovic, and T. Kram, et al. 2012. "A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities." Global Environmental Change. Part A, Human and Policy Dimensions 22, no. 1:21-35. PNNL-SA-81140. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.08.002


  • Moss R.H. 2011. "Reducing Doubt About Uncertainty: Guidance for IPCC’s Third Assessment." Climatic Change 108, no. 4:641-658. PNNL-SA-81045. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0182-x
  • Moss R.H., N.L. Engle, J. Hall, K. Jacobs, R. Lempert, L.O. Mearns, and J. Melillo, et al. 2011. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants. PNNL-20040. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
  • Unwin S.D., R.H. Moss, J.S. Rice, and M.J. Scott. 2011. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions. PNNL-20788. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.


  • Manning M., J.A. Edmonds, S. Emori, A. Grubler, K.A. Hibbard, F. Joos, and M. Kainuma, et al. 2010. "Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios." Nature Geoscience 3, no. 6:376-377. PNNL-SA-70040.
  • Moss R.H., J.A. Edmonds, K. Hibbard, K. Hibbard, M. Manning, S.K. Rose, and D. Van Vuuren, et al. 2010. "The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment." Nature 463, no. 7282:747-756. PNNL-SA-70018. doi:10.1038/nature08823
  • Rice J.S., P.J. Runci, R.H. Moss, and K.L. Anderson. 2010. iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region-. PNNL-20104. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.


  • Moss R.H., M. Babiker, S. Brinkman, E. Calvo, T. Carter, T. Carter, and J.A. Edmonds, et al. 2008. "Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies." In IPCC Expert Meeting Report: Towards New Scenarios, 132. Geneva:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. PNNL-SA-63186.

Selected Publications





  • Marengo JA, K Averyt, B Hewitson, N Leary, and RH Moss, Editors. 2009. Climate Research Special Issue: Integrating Analysis of Regional Climate Change and Response Options. Vol. 40, No. 2-3. Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572. CR SPECIAL 20 contains selected papers from a meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA), held in 2007 to catalyze interdisciplinary research on climate change, impacts, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation.


  • Moss RH. 2007. "Improving Information for Managing an Uncertain Future Climate." Global Environmental Change 17(1):4-7. DOI:10.1016/j-gloenvcha.2006.12.002.

  • Bierbaum RM, JP Holdren, MC MacCracken, RH Moss, and PH Raven, Editors. 2007. Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoidable. Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change (SEG). Report prepared for the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development, Sigma Xi Research, Triangle Park, North Carolina, and the United Nations Foundation, Washington, D.C.
  • Jochem E, Z Dadi, I Bashmakov, U Farinelli, MK Halpeth, N Jollands, T Kaiser, J Laitner, M Levine, F Moisan, HC Park, A Platonova-Oquab, R Schaeffer, J Sathaye, J Siegel, D Urge-Vorsatz,  E Usher, Y Wang, E Worrell, R. Moss, W Chandler, H Gwin, D Harwood, R Detchon, P Long, K Shickman, R Hobert, T Singh, J Gastellum, J Cass, N Davis, and L Freimuth. 2007. Realizing the Potential of Energy Efficiency: Targets, Policies, and Measures for G8 Countries. Expert Group on Energy Efficiency, United Nations Foundation Expert Report, Washington, D.C., 72 pp.  



  • Moss RH and SH Schneider. 2001. "Towards Consistent Assessment and Reporting of Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR." In: Cross-Cutting Issues in the IPCC Third Assessment Report, R Pachauri and T Taniguchi, Editors, Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Moss RH, AL Brenkert, and EL Malone. 2001. "Vulnerability to Climate Change:  A Quantitative Approach." PNNL-SA-33642, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington.
  • Watson RT, JA Dixon, SP Hamburg, AC Janetos, and RH Moss. 2001. Protecting Our Planet, Securing Our Future: Linkages Among Global Environmental Issues and Human Needs. United Nations Environment Programme, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and The World Bank, Nairobi and Washington, D.C., 95 pp.
  • Watson RT, MC Zinyowera, and RH Moss, Editors. 2001. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (United Kingdom) and New York, 517 pp.


  • Moss RH. 1998. "Water and the Challenge of Linked Environmental Changes." Water Resources Update (Universities Council on Water Resources) 112(1):6-9.


  • Schimel D, M Grubb, F Joos, R Kaufmann, RH Moss, W Ogana, R Richels, and T Wigley. 1997. Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases: Physical, Biological and Socio-Economic Implications, JT Houghton, L Gylvan, M Filho, DJ Griggs, and K Maskell, Editors. Technical Paper No. 3, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 56 pp.


  • Watson RT, MC Zinyowera, and RH Moss, Editors. 1996. Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change. Technical Paper No. 1, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 85 pp.


  • Watson RT, MC Zinyowera, and RH Moss, Editors. 1995. Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation (Scientific and Technical Analyses). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (United Kingdom) and New York, 880 pp.


  • Turner BL, RH Moss, and DL Skole. 1993. Relating Land Use and Global Land Cover Change. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Williamson P and RH Moss. 1993. "Degrees of National Wealth." Nature 362: Art. No.782. DOI:10.1038/362782a0.

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