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Improving Solar Forecasting
The development of an enhanced version of WRF-Solar
By improving the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Solar model, this project aims to reduce forecast errors of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) by 25%, yield better forecasts of irradiance ramps, improve estimates of sub-grid scale variability, and more accurately estimate forecast uncertainty. This enables solar power system operators to know how much solar power will be generated over the coming hours and days, ensuring economic and reliable delivery of renewable energy to American households and businesses.
This new system builds on the first version of the WRF-Solar model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Anticipated improvements in Version 2 include the following:
- New representation of boundary-layer clouds (both shallow cumuli and the breakup of stratocumulus) including the impact of entrainment
- Improved treatment of cloud microphysics, and impacts of aerosol (including absorbing aerosol)
- New parameterizations to account for the sub-grid temporal variability of solar irradiance during periods with broken clouds
- Detailed analysis to better quantify model uncertainty and improved calibration of WRF-Solar v2 using Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques